'Blockbuster' storm or light dusting? Forecasts vary

The Weather Channel

Two maps using different weather forecast models, the Euro model (top) and GFS model (bottom), display varying amounts of snowfall for a storm expected to hit the Northeast on Friday.

By Andrew Mach, Staff Writer, NBC News

Published at 4:00 p.m. ET: A major winter storm bound for the Northeast could bury Boston and surrounding areas under more than two feet of snow later this week -- or not, depending on which weather forecast model is right.

Forecasters agree on the fact that a clipper from the North is expected to combine with a rainy storm moving through the South to create a snowstorm for many parts of the region late Friday and Saturday.

But they remain divided on the storm?s potential impact, citing different forecast models, namely the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), or Euro model, and the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of the U.S.

?The European model has continued to insist there is going to be this really big storm but the other models are not bullish on it at all,? the?Weather Channel?s Carl Parker?said. ?The difference is ? will it be a blockbuster for places like Boston??

Various forecasts for Boston on Friday call for anywhere between three to 43 inches of snowfall.

Stakes are high with "the largest snowstorm in two years" barreling toward Massachusetts, capable of producing??potentially life-threatening? levels of snowfall,?the Weather Channel?s Chris Warren warned. So with the potential for confusion and possible fear mongering, why have more than one model in the first place??

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Tom Niziol, a meteorologist for The Weather Channel, said inside a meteorologist's toolbox is "an ensemble of weather forecasting models that complement -- instead of compete against -- each other by measuring different data."?

Alhough meteorologists assess several models every day, the Euro and GFS models are two primary indicators of weather in the U.S.

The Euro model, with forecasters headquartered in Reading, England, is generated by a?computer system that contains the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data, forecasting weather events from 15 days to 12 months in advance, according to the Center.

The GFS model produces forecasts up to 16 days in advance, but with decreasing resolution over time, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

While the models work together, Niziol said the European model is generally considered the best.

"There are and will continue to be times when one model may continue to outpace another model for a variety of reasons," Niziol said. "Recent verification has suggested that European model on average does just a bit better than some of its model counterparts when predicting forecasts."

Snowstorm alert: Northeast braces for possible winter 'blockbuster'

Indeed, it was the Euro model that accurately predicted the intense and unprecedented impact?and of?Superstorm Sandy when it was a only a "small and?utterly conventional tropical cyclone off the northern coast of Venezuela" more than 144 hours in advance, the New Republic reported.?

But no model, said Niziol, can be used exclusively.?

"The challenge for the forecaster is to use nothing more than mathematical equations and a computer model to accurately sample and predict how fast features in the atmosphere are moving across the US and coming together to make one significant storm," Niziol said.

But in spite of the likely forecast discrepancies that result from multiple weather models at play, Niziol said using a variety of them is what?s best for predicting the weather.

?The last thing I want to be going toward is one model over another,? Niziol said. ?I think having different models around the globe working in tandem and continuing to make use of their expertise allows us to experiment on many different levels and share that information with other countries."

For now, Niziol said you can bank on snow hitting the Northeast on Friday. But as for exactly how much? It's a bit too early to tell.

"The storm hasn't even developed as a distinct feature on the weather map and it's not going to be in it's final state until probably Thursday night or Friday morning," Niziol said. "I hope our viewers plan accordingly."?

Source: http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/06/16871522-blockbuster-storm-or-light-dusting-forecasts-vary-for-late-week-noreaster?lite

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